SPY Chart - April 4, 2008

I’m charting the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) this weekend.  Like the rest of the large “spiders” it’s still in a trading range that started in January.  For the past four days it touched top side of the relatively short upward trend line that started at the beginning of March a month ago, but couldn’t break through.  I like seeing this uptrend brewing, but until it gets above the trading range that tops out around 140, I won’t feel too inclined to be a big buyer.  The next dip will be interesting to watch to see if it goes all the way down to 130 or just to the latest uptrend which could be at 135 by then.

The number options I’m short are heavily weighted towards the April expiration aside from the two sets of May naked puts I sold in the second half of this week.  I still have a bearish sentiment on my home page and have been considering a change and just can’t bring myself to change it until we break through that ceiling.  Of course I won’t be calling the bottom.  I’ll be saying our upside potential is finally outweighing the short-term downside potential.  With earnings season beginning, I’m cautious.  It doesn’t take an experienced investor to predict it will be a rocky road for the next month.  Getting above 140 just turns that bias north instead of sideways or down.