Comments on: Sold Oil ETF USO Naked Put http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/ Investing in Stocks Through Options Thu, 18 Mar 2010 01:55:21 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Alex Fotopoulos http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/comment-page-1/#comment-4193 Alex Fotopoulos Sat, 16 Aug 2008 11:28:23 +0000 http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/#comment-4193 Peak Oil + Demand Destruction = Up? Down? Flat? I can only hope that my two out of three chances play out for me. Up or flat and I'm good, down and I'm chasing it with calls. It's somewhat of a hedge for my other positions if nothing else. It's a new type of trade of me, so we'll see what I learn. Peak Oil + Demand Destruction = Up? Down? Flat?
I can only hope that my two out of three chances play out for me. Up or flat and I’m good, down and I’m chasing it with calls. It’s somewhat of a hedge for my other positions if nothing else. It’s a new type of trade of me, so we’ll see what I learn.

]]> By: Options Strategery http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/comment-page-1/#comment-4187 Options Strategery Sat, 16 Aug 2008 01:12:24 +0000 http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/#comment-4187 Peak Oil + Demand Destruction = Up? Down? Flat? As the OPEC guy likes to say: "Just as the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones, the OPEC age doesn't have to end because we ran out of oil." There is real supply contraction in the long term as new fields are more marginal. But there will also be significant inroads made by natgas/solar for transportation/electricity. I don't think /CL trades on fundamentals (it's pretty obvious that the inventory numbers are very suspect). Will wait for your post while the time decay works on UNG; there's always the next expiration cycle. Peak Oil + Demand Destruction = Up? Down? Flat?

As the OPEC guy likes to say: “Just as the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, the OPEC age doesn’t have to end because we ran out of oil.”

There is real supply contraction in the long term as new fields are more marginal. But there will also be significant inroads made by natgas/solar for transportation/electricity.

I don’t think /CL trades on fundamentals (it’s pretty obvious that the inventory numbers are very suspect).

Will wait for your post while the time decay works on UNG; there’s always the next expiration cycle.

]]> By: Alex Fotopoulos http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/comment-page-1/#comment-4186 Alex Fotopoulos Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:02:12 +0000 http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/#comment-4186 I'll have to write a longer post to do justice to your question. In short, I think we're seeing big oil companies producing less oil from the same oil fields they've been mining for decades. Worldwide demand will continue to inch upwards, with slight pullbacks thrown in like we're seeing now in the US. I also see another natural disaster or terrorist attack (Nigeria had one recently) that disrupts production and pushes prices higher again. I still have my natgas play on CHK. I agree with you there on the potential. I’ll have to write a longer post to do justice to your question. In short, I think we’re seeing big oil companies producing less oil from the same oil fields they’ve been mining for decades. Worldwide demand will continue to inch upwards, with slight pullbacks thrown in like we’re seeing now in the US. I also see another natural disaster or terrorist attack (Nigeria had one recently) that disrupts production and pushes prices higher again.
I still have my natgas play on CHK. I agree with you there on the potential.

]]> By: Options Strategery http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/comment-page-1/#comment-4181 Options Strategery Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:51:45 +0000 http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2008/08/15/sold-oil-etf-uso-naked-put/#comment-4181 It may just be expiration weirdness but today when /CL was down big, equities didn't really move higher. You can get the same kind of premiums (slightly better I think) on natgas which I think is a much better trade. Seasonally, natgas bottoms in the summer. In energy, I think it's time to long natgas and gasoline. Have no clue about the direction of crude. What makes you so bullish on it? It may just be expiration weirdness but today when /CL was down big, equities didn’t really move higher.

You can get the same kind of premiums (slightly better I think) on natgas which I think is a much better trade. Seasonally, natgas bottoms in the summer.

In energy, I think it’s time to long natgas and gasoline. Have no clue about the direction of crude.

What makes you so bullish on it?

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