Bad Few Days

I’m taking more of a beating than expected lately.  I was down slightly more than the usual ups and downs of my account’s ebbs and flows last week and then this week I’ve be absolutely waxed.  I’ve had a few of these spells over the past couple of years and once it feels like the bottom is falling out (aka yesterday and today) that tends to be the turning point.  This is the hardest part of investing to me – trying to hold back emotions of wanting to stop the losses to stay situated in the right place for a recovery.  It’s hard because some of these positions probably need to be cut.  To remove some of the emotion I charted each underlying stock I have an option on.

• AA - looks to be near support
• DRYS – looks to be near support now.
• JOYG – has more room to drop, but has more upside potential than down.  This could turn into a long term hold.
• CHK – looks to be near support now and will be a longer term play for me.
• CMI - a couple of dollars away from its lower trend line of lower lows.  My options expire in less than two weeks.  If the low from two days ago holds CMI could rally and keep me out of the money.  If it stays flat from what I have right now, I’d end with a profit.
• FCX - near the lows of August 2007 and January 2008 – if this price holds again this time, FCX is a good one to hold, if not I should dump, but by then would probably reason that the upside has more potential than the downside.  This could be another long term hold.
• MON - down big today to take it back to the $100 area that has been support off and on for the past year.  I’m waiting it out.  Good premiums help give me a better cushion here too.
• QCOM – almost $1 away from its support level.  I expect a bounce or at least a leveling out soon for QCOM.
• TDW - It’s down in between my call and put.  If it flattens out I could take a full profit on both and rewrite both.  It’s near support too.
• USO – Oil is dropping, but the premiums are still good on the options, so I am waiting on this one a little longer.  It’s certainly a longer term play.  USO is down to 84.33 this morning and 80 looks like support.  The chart might not matter as much with the macro-economic factors playing a bigger role, as they should.
• VIP – might just be a gamble for me these days.  It’s incredibly volatile and offers good premiums.  The downside on the stock could beat me down more than the premiums can bring me up though.  I’m expecting the $20 area to offer support, but the latest trend is down by any chart drawing.

I’ve already made the mistakes that got me into this situation, so making a rash move now won’t help me.  With the global economy weakening my commodity plays are losing.  This weaker global economy is strengthening the dollar which is helping oil’s fall.  Clearly I have been in on the wrong stocks with not enough diversification.  I was waiting for September options’ expiration, but might have to change some of these positions if they break support.