Grupo Televisa SA (TV) was a bold move for me when I sold the naked puts ITM and it was flying in my direction until ethical law makers got in the way and decided to essentially spread out the rights to frequency freed up by technology gains. This is my list of what I should have seen as clear signals to dump TV earlier.
- I have an alert set up to email me when TV trades lower than I want it to. It buzzes me every morning when the market opens to remind me I made a mistake, but I haven’t listened to my original instincts and plan.
- On June 1st and 4th TV hit a ceiling with its 10 and 20 day moving averages. Both of those days should have been red flags for me.
- Two weeks ago TV temporarily fell below its weekly trend line that had been holding for a long time. It closed the week above the line, but should have had me on my toes.
- The news in this link told the clearest story of why I should run, at least for the short term. One of my main reasons for liking TV was its domination of the Mexico market. This gives a hard blow to the lopsided duopoly that TV has had in Mexico for many years.
On the other hand, I can draw 5 lines (maybe I’m being too imaginative in my drawings) that show the current price should be the bottom. I went to bed last night with the peace that I’m allowed to make mistakes and know it will happen. I planned to come in today and take my losses, but this bill isn’t a law yet and might not end up going against TV. Also, TV hasn’t broken my final trend lines and could find footing now. I have until July 20th before my options expire and unless I’m assigned the stock sooner it isn’t a big burden on my portfolio while I wait it out. Just this morning, in the first 35 minutes of trading, TV has swung from a low of 26.44 to a high of 27.01 to the current price of 26.80.
I have to wonder how much of this quick decline can also be attributed to the overall market decline this week. I’ve been hoping for a nice correction and was happy to get the dip this week. I mis-timed my orders by a day and hope that this is really just a correction and we can move on a little longer in our upward direction. I wouldn’t even mind if we had another down week next week. That would help squeeze out some more of the stock love-fest we’ve been running with for so long.
I’m not finished learning from my TV experience and will update my journal along the way. Here’s the chart with my five creative lines that keep me involved.
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