I’ve been waiting for the past couple of months to see a correction in the markets with the belief that we’ve gained too much too fast. I was expecting at least a 10% pull back, but now that we’re in the middle of the correction I wonder if we could go further.
- Earlier today the DJIA was down almost 9% from its intraday high.
- The S&P 500 made fell a touch over 9% from intraday high to intraday low (and closed below its 200 day moving average for the second day in a row).
- The Russell 2000 fell over 11.5% from intraday top to bottom (and closed on its 200 day moving average after falling below it intraday).
Those numbers are very close to where I thought the markets might bottom. My account could stand a flattening out around here for some of my positions through options expiration. That could allow me to roll a few positions or close them for a small profit while we find out how much deeper we’re headed in the near term. Even if all of my naked puts are assigned and my long positions aren’t called away with my covered calls, I still have a decent percentage of my account available to get in at lower prices. And that’s where I stand today, wondering if the risk/reward potential now is starting to tilt more favorably to adding more exposure again. The jobs numbers scare me more than any part of the economy. What is considered by many as a lagging indicator could be more of a coincident indicator meaning what we see now is affecting the current economy more than the past. Until jobs turn better, rather than not as bad, I think jobs could even be more of a leading indicator of what trouble lies ahead.
So, all that together leaves me with no trades so far this week and potential continued inactivity through next week’s option expiration where I’ll have to make some changes by the end of the week or take option assignments. I’m working on my boss to shift me into a different job internally in the hopes that it saves my employment status, but might not know for a couple of weeks. Times are not too easy in the land of recruiters right now.