I only had one option expire today (DIA, December 30, $121 strike) and it expired out of the money, worthless. Just as I expected, DIA rose some, but not enough that I should’ve bought the shares instead of selling the naked put. I made the trade at the beginning December when DIA was trading at $120.94. At the end of the last trading day of the year DIA was trading at $121.88. I could have sold the strike $1 higher and made some more money, but I made more than $200 more by writing the put instead of buying 100 shares of DIA so I can’t complain.
I planned to write another naked put to kick off the year and ride the market each month with options on either side, but the resistance that the Dow and S&P have both been up against recently needs to break to the higher side before I feel I should add more exposure. I might miss out on the first couple of percent of gains, but if the markets dip again like it looks like they might be prone to, then I will have played it the right way. I’m under invested right now, but I’ll be withdrawing nearly $25,000 next week so that I start the year with an even $100k in my IB account. After that $25k withdrawal I’ll still be slightly less than 25% invested, but with my ultra-ETF exposure through UWM and UCO I have enough beta in my account to move me around as if I was 100%+ invested. I’m just not at risk for going on margin if everything was assigned. I’d like to get more aggressive in January, but would prefer at least a few percent sell-off first.
What do all of you see for 2012? Leave a comment or shoot me an email if you prefer. Have a happy New Year and let’s all plan to make lots of wise investment choices in 2012. Thanks for reading My Trader’s Journal this year. I appreciate all of the feedback and hope you’ve learned something from my ramblings.
Hi,
I see more choppiness and volatility ahead for 2012, especially in commodities; profiting by opportunism; oil stocks doing well; china slowing down; eurozone staying in everyone’s way, including their own; and modest growth in the US. Hard to say what the US consumer does. Hopefully will get some good put selling opportunities.
Best and happy new year,
Matt
Happy new year to you as well!
btw.. i started using your uco strategy in 2010 and made money last 2 years from that strategy.. so thank you for your “rambling” 🙂
@ Matt – good summary, seems accurate to me.
@ Khan – I’m glad UCO is working for you too. It’s just volatile enough to keep out the masses from joining us and ruining our fun/profits.