My Returns According to Quicken

Here’s an update on my returns as of this morning, 5/14/07 – pre-market according to Quicken:

• 12 months: 22.33%
• YTD Annualized: 40.17%

40.17% annualized YTD - that’s crazy!  I don’t expect to keep that track record running.  This bull market has made it easy since I rarely get caught on a loss these days.  I know it will turn eventually, but until then I’ll keep pushing it, even if at a slower pace.  If my next 7 1/2 months are better than the final 7 1/2 months of last year I’ll end the year at least +25%.  I’ll be happy with that, but of course I’m hoping to stay as close to 40% as possible.  That’s going to be harder to manage since I’m not staying as heavily invested lately as I was a few months ago.  Less leverage = smaller returns, but also less chances for massive losses in a quick downturn.  I could stop all trades and put my money in a 6 month CD for the rest of the year and likely still beat the market, but that’s like leaving Vegas after 2 days of gambling when you have the hotel for 5 nights.