Still Employed

A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I was told my job was being cut at the end of July.  The end of July came and went, but my job didn’t.  I’m still sitting in the same chair.  Finally on Wednesday, three business days into August, I went to my boss’ office for something else and he asked me to close the door.  He said he’d keep me on a week to week basis as long as our business didn’t falter too much more and then would give me a two week severance whenever he did cut me.  I fully expect our business to continue slipping under his “leadership” and the current economic state, but I have to say I’m happy about still being employed.  I’m working on some other opportunities for me to try to get out before the ax does find my neck, but haven’t locked anything down yet.  Updates to come as something solidifies…

I haven’t traded much at all in weeks.  I keep reading stock charts that show equities are bumping their heads on resistance.  When I see charts like I posted on BAC and AA which look bullish I’ve been gun shy and missed out on gains I should’ve gone after.  I can only attribute my lack of action to my own state of mind in expecting unemployment and how the many others are reacting who are already in that situation and not finding something new.

This morning the report on new claims for unemployment benefits showed a slow down, but the number of continuing claims continue to grow.  My take is that most companies have cut back pretty deep already and are only doing small cuts at this point.  Basically the bleeding has slowed, but the gash is still bleeding.  Without companies seeing enough demand yet to actually hire new employees or even move part-time employees to full time I expect the overall economy to have trouble improving much more from here.  That could lead to a longer term sideways (or small range-bound) market which would be good for options sellers, but being on the cusp of a big move in either direction makes it a market where most positions should certainly be hedged.

I’ll be back in my trading mindset soon, but am remaining patient as long as possible.  I’m missing gains, but also missing losses to the downside.  Tomorrow’s data will be interesting.